2024 Calgary real estate market trends and what’s ahead for 2025
Marked by continued price growth, persistent supply challenges among lower-priced homes, and the long-awaited shift toward more balanced market conditions, home buyers and sellers saw a little bit of everything.
With 2024 drawing to a close and many of our clients asking what they can expect in Calgary real estate this coming year, in this month’s blog, we reflected on a few key trends that shaped Calgary’s real estate market this year and developments that may impact what the future holds for 2025.
Following in the footsteps of 2023, the Calgary real estate market got off to a hot start in 2024, with prices rising steadily during the first few months of the year. February, March, and April were the busiest months for transactions and price growth, with high demand continuing to drive competition and multiple-offer scenarios.
However, in a surprising twist that came as a shock to many Realtors and industry experts (us included), the much-anticipated decline in Government of Canada interest rates did not lead to the predicted surge in buyer demand — as would-be buyers behaved more cautiously than expected, likely due to economic uncertainties or higher price points in specific market segments.
The resulting transition towards more balanced market conditions throughout the second half of the year was among 2024’s most significant developments; where homes were previously in multiple offers, we began to see many sell below listing price or even make price adjustments.
It’s also worth noting that rental rates — which soared in tandem with housing demand the past two years — were trending downwards. The average Calgary rental rate was down 5.5% year-over-year from 2023.
Even though the overall market trended toward more balanced conditions from August to December, many market segments continued to lean heavily toward sellers — with specific conditions varying greatly depending on home type and price point.
With 2024 drawing to a close and many of our clients asking what they can expect in Calgary real estate this coming year, in this month’s blog, we reflected on a few key trends that shaped Calgary’s real estate market this year and developments that may impact what the future holds for 2025.
Strong out of the gates but a slower, steadier finish
Following in the footsteps of 2023, the Calgary real estate market got off to a hot start in 2024, with prices rising steadily during the first few months of the year. February, March, and April were the busiest months for transactions and price growth, with high demand continuing to drive competition and multiple-offer scenarios.
However, in a surprising twist that came as a shock to many Realtors and industry experts (us included), the much-anticipated decline in Government of Canada interest rates did not lead to the predicted surge in buyer demand — as would-be buyers behaved more cautiously than expected, likely due to economic uncertainties or higher price points in specific market segments.
The resulting transition towards more balanced market conditions throughout the second half of the year was among 2024’s most significant developments; where homes were previously in multiple offers, we began to see many sell below listing price or even make price adjustments.
It’s also worth noting that rental rates — which soared in tandem with housing demand the past two years — were trending downwards. The average Calgary rental rate was down 5.5% year-over-year from 2023.
The tale of two markets
Even though the overall market trended toward more balanced conditions from August to December, many market segments continued to lean heavily toward sellers — with specific conditions varying greatly depending on home type and price point.
While the supply of homes priced over $700,000 has steadily increased month-over-month, easing conditions for buyers shopping at higher price points, lower-priced homes — especially semi-detached and detached — remained comparatively scarce when coupled with the high demand for more affordable housing options.
Additionally, many home builders focused on keeping new townhomes and condos as rentals—a strategy influenced by favourable lending rules—exacerbating the limited availability in this segment.
As of November 2024, the Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) monthly market report highlighted ongoing supply shortages for lower-priced homes.
Looking ahead to 2025
What does all of this mean for 2025? Great question. It’s essential to remember that every forecast, even the most well-researched, is speculative and subject to change based on real-time market trends and current events.
That said, several developments from 2024 are likely to bear relevant impacts on housing supply and demand heading into 2025:
- Land Rezoning - It will take time to determine the long-term impacts of 2024’s blanket rezoning land use re-designations. Still, we are seeing an uptick in development permits submitted in Calgary neighbourhoods previously zoned R1. Despite the contentious nature of the city’s rezoning, they should increase the supply of rowhouses and townhomes throughout 2025 in neighbourhoods that were previously single-family home communities.
- New Construction - More homebuilders are leaning into townhome developments. Although concerns about oversupply and profitability linger for rentals, some are exploring the market gap for townhomes for sale, driven by sustained demand for affordable ownership options.
- Speculative Investment - During the red-hot market in 2022, many speculative investors from out-of-province invested in pre-construction projects, betting they would dramatically increase in value by completion time, a gamble that was successful in Ontario and BC. With many of these projects finishing soon and in 2025 and not having increased in value as anticipated, many investors will be looking to sell to cut losses or put units up for rental, increasing supply to the housing or rental markets.
- Immigration Slowdown - Following two years of record migration, Calgary is expected to see a continued slowdown in international and interprovincial migration, which could ease demand in both rental and housing markets and further contribute to the stabilization of supply and demand.
Final thoughts
Taking into account factors likely to impact supply and demand, leading industry experts are predicting the Calgary real estate market will likely see a more modest price growth of between 1-3% in 2025.
Though anti-climatic news for potential sellers and some Realtors, the continuing trend towards more balanced market conditions brings a much-needed reprieve for buyers and is generally good for the city as a whole, as the 7-10% year-over-year price growth we saw in 2022/23 is not sustainable.
Following two or three record-setting years of price appreciation, a return to comparatively stable conditions will be a tough adjustment, but there are still plenty of encouraging reasons to be optimistic about Calgary’s future growth:
- Lower housing prices with higher average incomes when compared with other major cities
- The lowest tax rate in Canada
- An entrepreneurial spirit and economic diversification, in addition to a robust oil and gas industry
- A young and educated population
- Renewed government investment in public projects and infrastructure
Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, Calgary’s long-term potential makes it a city worth watching, and 2025 could see favourable buying opportunities for investors and home buyers.
